How bad are things in Pakistan?

[DMB]

Clinton seems to be talking up the seriousness of the situation:

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/22/clinton.pakistan/index.html

I think that we cannot underscore the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan by continuing advances, now within hours of Islamabad, that are being made by a loosely confederated group of terrorists and others who are seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state, a nuclear-armed state

[Troglodyte]

And she'd be right. Pakistan has been burbling for a while. My understanding is that our government - whether specifically the State Department (which doesn't always operate at the behest of the White House... rather the State Department apparently often tries to sway the White House to their own agenda irrespective of the administration in office... something changes people who become Sec. of State seemingly every time) or the White House under Bush - hung Musharraf out to dry. We used him to our ends, and then when he needed us, we abandoned him. Granted, Musharraf may not have been the greatest leader, certainly not what we'd like here, but he was better than what we've got now.

A month or so ago I read some articles about the Taliban seeking stronger Sharia law institutions in a northern region (called Swat) of Pakistan. The Pakistani government caved and had a treaty or somesuch. Then, within a week or so, the Taliban said the government wasn't moving fast enough, so they reneged. Classic hudna, the Taliban is on the move. They know that there is a large enough percentage of Pakistanis that find the Taliban's interpretation and application of the Quran and Sunnah as acceptable.

It's not the 10% of Muslims worldwide that follow Islamist fundamentalism you have to worry about. It's the much larger percentage of "moderate" Muslims that are neutral to effectively acceptant/tight lipped about the fundie view that you have to worry about.

If Pakistan falls to the Taliban, Obama is going to have a major problem on his hands... and I truly hope he can figure out a way to nullify them or at least cage them - no joke, that's something I honestly hope that the president succeeds in is countering and containing, if not quashing Islamism (fundie jihad in its variant forms).

This isn't like Iran where they will have nukes within short order. Pakistan already has nukes. The old way of Sunni domination and a lack of coordination between the Shiites and Sunnis is fading. I think many people are seriously miscalculating the Iranian government, much less what is going on in the whole region.

And on a tangental note, I believe we're going to see Turkey under Erdogan take a larger and stronger position in that region as a power player, but moreso as a mediator.

Many Islamists are hoping and pushing for a return to the khalifate. I believe we may well see one come to fruition within the next decade.

For those interested in the topic, I highly recommend reading Vali Nasr's, The Shia Revival.

[DMB]

I'd be very surprised if they achieved a caliphate. There are also plenty of secular Pakistanis.

[Troglodyte]

Surprising things have happened in the past across the world.

Did the US expect 9-11 even a day beforehand?
Did the world expect the reformation of the nation of Israel a mere few decades prior?
In 1919, did the world expect to be thrown back into world war two decades later?
Did the Muslim world in 1914 foresee the collapse of their last khalifate, the Ottoman Empire?

The power of secularism in the west assumes the same standards in the east.

The US believed that extricating the Taliban from Afghanistan not only was right, but shouldn't be too hard. We were shortly able to get a "democratic" government in place - whether or not Karzi is a lackey or not is another issue - but did we foresee the continued problems along with the potentiality of a return of the Taliban or some similar Islamist group gaining power there?

For now, the Taliban doesn't even have to take over Pakistan completely to destabilize the whole state. By controlling large portions of the country they put the government against the wall and in some respects showcase how ineffective - if not gelded - it is.

Islam is a way of life, from culture to religion to law and so on. There are deeply ingrained concepts within Islam that pervade every aspect and psyche of many people who consider themselves Muslims, even if very "secular". The draw of the khalifate is perhaps almost "genetic" in a sense as part and parcel to what Islam was and what it is dreamed it should/will be.

I will go out on an educated limb and say that the percentage of secularists - in the Western sense - in Pakistan and across the 10/40 window, from Morrocco to the Phillipines is slim and due to the nature of how the Islamists work, think and are operating within and outside of their respective states, and how the majority of current Muslim governments are set up, cannot garner the level of power, even if only to contain the Islamists, as we in the West think they should or could.

[DMB]

I think you overestimate the number of those who dream about the caliphate or the 12th Imam or whatever. It is probably no more than those who dream of the Second Coming or the the Rapture.

[tjakey]

I think you overestimate the number of those who dream about the caliphate or the 12th Imam or whatever. It is probably no more than those who dream of the Second Coming or the the Rapture.

I don't know, that Second Coming belief seems to be a pretty big number. So here is an interesting question, (at least to me). Fundamentalists of all stripes appear to be driving the world toward a very bad future. Just exactly why is it we feel compelled to treat them kindly, be gentle with our criticisms of them, and tolerate their actions? Why is it we can (supposedly) criticize an ideology but under no circumstances should we be critical of an individual who holds that ideology?

Isn't that what is happening in Pakistan? The Taliban appear to have no restraints in imposing their fundamentalists beliefs by force of arms while the Pakistani government (and moderate, if there is such a thing, Muslims) tiptoe around trying not to offend anyone.

[Troglodyte]

http://www.andrewbostom.org/blog/2009/03/11/geert-wilders-and-totalitarian-islam/

Overwhelming Muslim majorities i.e., better than two-thirds (see the weighted average calculated here) of a well-conducted survey of the world’s most significant, and populous Arab and non-Arab Muslim countries, want these hideous, immoderate outcomes: “strict application” of Shari’a, Islamic Law, and a global Caliphate.

(released February 25, 2009) indicated the following about our erstwhile Muslim ally nations of Egypt and Pakistan: 81% of the Muslims of “moderate” Egypt, the largest Arab Muslim nation, desire a “strict” application of Shari’a, Islamic Law; 76% of the Pakistan’s Muslims—one of the most important, and sizable non-Arab Muslim populations—want this outcome. Furthermore, 70% of Egyptian Muslims and 69% of Pakistani Muslims desire the re-creation of a “…single Islamic state or Caliphate.” Earlier, I detailed the totalitarian impact of these fulfilled Islamic desires —based upon their doctrinal and historical application, across space and time.

Granted, this is from a blog and based on a poll, and while I'm certainly not an academic, after 9 years of reading about and studying Islam, after having visited London in the summer of 2001 and Western China in 2002, I believe that the above assessment is more in line with the sad reality and state of affairs in the world.

The world underestimates what is going on in the Muslim world and what they believe.

[tjakey]

So what's the conclusion, that the next world war is getting pretty close and will be Muslims vs Everybody else?

And if so, any chance we will stop selling them weapons anytime soon?

[Troglodyte]

Yup.

It might be one "war", a series of wars or a general expansion of what is currently in place. I don't know.

From what I'm understanding and extrapolating of secular and Islamic literature and of course what I understand based upon my beliefs, I've got some general ideas of what may be on the horizon.

If war with the Muslim world occurs (In some ways it already started in 2003), I think we'll first see some internal crises. Furthermore I think we will eventually see the Muslim world attack Israel again. Whether Israel "instigates" this or not, I don't know (though with what I've been reading, Israel's about ready to push the preemptive panic button and potentially willing to go it alone, come what may).

As I've noted, there is a paradigm shift in the works in Dar-Al-Islam. The old arab power base is losing its hold of authority. And whereas there had always been primarily Sunni control over the Shiites and segregation, many non-arab sunnis seem to be sidling up to the Iranians and Shiites. As well, events in Iraq and shifting issues in Iran since their "revolution" are giving Iran and Shiites reason to see things turning in their favor in the Muslim world.

Turkey's leading party is effectively an Islamist party. Turkey's population is growing in ideology away from Ataturk's secularist changes. Even if the AKP or Islamists don't maintain control and power in Turkey, several secular books, articles and individuals I've read see an eventual rise in Turkey's authority and presence in the region to the point of becoming something of a neo-Ottoman Empire of sorts.

I believe we will see some measure of unification within the Islamic world. As to whether or not the West, specifically the US will then engage in war with this new Islamic power, I don't know for sure.

As for the issue of weapons. Well, currently it looks like the US is beginning to dry up the tap for Israel. And Obama is still trying to court Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia at the same time. Even as/if we continue to try to make substantive efforts to wean ourselves off of foreign oil - Saudi especially - I think it's going to be some time before we're able to fully "go green".

Thus I think any future war we do engage in (if we're able to...) will inevitably still have a factor of oil in it, even if that war is during Obama's administration. We're damned if we do or don't because of the simple reality that our nation cannot run fully without cheap and plentiful oil.

I think our economy is going to have a whiplash effect within the next year. We're seeing positive improvements right now but I think the long term effects will nullify some of the short term effects. Another words, we're on a roller coaster with several hills, not just one valley. I believe we're going to see $4 gas again, probably by this time next year if not by winter.

If the Muslim world engages in an internal war, that will necessarily drive up oil prices. If that Muslim world unifies and decides to become beligerent to the US and the West, that will drive up oil prices, especially if we have not managed to heavily wean ourselves off of their oil. If Israel goes to war that will drive up oil prices and it remains to be seen whether or not we will assist them. Since Obama has come into office it's becoming more and more apparent that he's backing away from Israel.

So yeah, I think we're on the cusp of the next world war or a couple of them in "stages". How it will all unfold, I'm unsure, but from a secular position, I can see Turkey and Iran continuing to be major players; oil will continue to be a major factor as will Israel and so too the power struggle between the arabs and every other Muslim nation and the Shiites and the Sunnis. How much we in the west and US will be involved in this, I honestly don't know.

[tjakey]

Ouch...and I was so looking forward to the weekend!

[premjan]

The problem with Pakistan is elitism in the society - the rich landowners and mostly poor labor class. The Pakistan army will generally not attack the Taliban proactively (not until public opinion goes decisively against them at least) but it will defend against incursions into areas where they are already deployed. The Taliban may spread through Pakistan and create a kind of proletarian revolution without actually taking over military control.

[DMB]

The problem with Pakistan is elitism in the society - the rich landowners and mostly poor labor class. The Pakistan army will generally not attack the Taliban proactively (not until public opinion goes decisively against them at least) but it will defend against incursions into areas where they are already deployed. The Taliban may spread through Pakistan and create a kind of proletarian revolution without actually taking over military control.

I agree with that. In a way it is similar to the strategy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Pose as the champion of the poor against entrenched privilege.

[premjan]

Now I hear that the Taliban has retreated from Buner, so I think they will remain only in Pashtun-majority areas.

[DMB]

Interesting background stuff in this article (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6168940.ece).

“The implicit threat - if you don’t do it, we may have to - was always there,” said the Pakistani official. He said that under American pressure, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency told the Taliban to withdraw from Buner on Friday.

However, reports yesterday indicated that the Taliban withdrawal was less than total. As a result, hundreds of thousands of people in the district were still at the mercy of armed militants and their restrictive interpretation of Islamic law...

...As in Swat, once his forces had established themselves, Khalil began to impose the movement’s repressive rules on what had once been a peaceful valley. He ordered girls over seven to wear veils and directed men to keep their women inside and to grow beards. He banned music. In several villages the Taliban were snatching mobile phones on the pretext that they had musical ring tones or photos of women on them.

The Taliban stole livestock, took vehicles belonging to government officials and ransacked the offices of some local nongovernment organisations. In a phone call, Khalil denied the Taliban were terrorists. He said: “We’ve raised the arms to spread the message of Allah. This is the responsibility of each and every Muslim.” But residents fear it is just a matter of time before their daughters are forced to marry Taliban commanders, a process that has begun already in Swat, along with public floggings.

[premjan]

Pakistan is still living under the illusion that perfect Islam will solve all their problems, hence the reluctance to act against the Taliban. In a sense it fits with the notion of self-determination in e.g. Kashmir but it is worse, more like capitulation.